Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Calculating Probability in Business Success

If a person tosses up a coin, there's only ways it can possibly fall -- heads or tails. It is as likely to fall way as the other, so they say that the probability of falling heads is ½ or half as probable. But, in tossing coins, they are six possibilities. These are: hhh, hht, hth, htt, thh, tht, tth & ttt. Only of these these combinations have heads, so the probability of throwing heads is 3/8 or eights.

When they say that event is more probable than another, they mean it is more likely to happen. The branch of arithmetic called probability tries to express in numbers statements of the form: An event (A) is kind of probable than an event (B).

Now suppose a person throws dice. There's thirty-six different combinations. But there is combination that'll give "ones" so the probability of throwing "ones" is 1/36th or thirty-sixth. There is ways to throw a "one" as well as a "two" so the probability of this throw is 2/36 or thirty-sixth or you can call it 1/18th or eighteen.

Wikipedia: Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred. The idea has an exact mathematical meaning in theory, which is used extensively in such areas of study as arithmetic, statistics, finance, betting, science, artificial intelligence/machine learning & philosophy to draw conclusions.

There is a mathematical statement for all situations of this kind. Let (M) stand for any number of events that are equally likely to happen. Let (N) stand for the number of these events that would be favorable in the event that they happened. Then the probability that a favorable event will happen is (N/M).

These rules about probability are used by life insurance firms. When a person takes out a life insurance owner, it is vital for the company to be able to estimate how long they will probability live. Each age has a different probability called life expectancy.

As a example when Donald Trump was asked by an interviewer, "Do you think you are a lucky actual estate investor?" They says, "The harder you work the luckier you get!" Great answer, but he is also know as being paramount in calculating probability in business & actual estate ventures. In other worlds more on the laws of probability & less on the luck part.

Mathematicians have prepared tables of life expectancy. The rules of probability are also used by scientists in interpreting statistics & estimating true values from experimental information. Actually, calculating probability is widely used in all facets of business. Even in your personal life, rules of probability are used without even thinking about it.

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